Birth rates exceed death rates in more than half the states

Natural increase (births exceeding deaths) has been declining since 2020, and more states experienced natural decline (deaths exceeding births) in the early years of the decade than at any point in the 2010s, driven primarily by rising deaths combined with smaller declines in births.

Regions with large elderly populations often experience natural attrition and population decline in the absence of migration. Until 2020, natural population growth in the U.S. was about one million people per year. It began to decline in 2020, but this nationwide trend has eclipsed the widespread natural decline at the state level since the beginning of the decade.

In the 2010s, only four states (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and West Virginia) consistently had more deaths than births. However, half of the states experienced a natural decline between 2020 and 2021 and between 2021 and 2022 . While 19 states recovered slightly, 15 - mostly in the South - experienced natural declines in all of the estimated periods between April 1, 2020 (Census Day) and July 1, 2023.